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settlement adds back the prices, not the realized forecast-class violations (convention ii)

2026-09-26 · settled · DECISIONS.md line 5290

Maintainer decision, landed by the BRIA-corrigibility round. The winning hypothesis is settled on the realized residual with ϖ · Σ p_n(E) added back — exactly the terms it did not bid on — so that it bears the gap between the realized forecast-class violations and their prices (BRIACorrigibility.residII, settlement_ii_consistent). A bidder who knows a shortfall the market under-prices bids it in and is evaluated with the full penalty (blind_spot_ii): bidders select against the market's blind spots. Rejected alternative: convention (i), adding back the realized violations, under which the market alone bears its pricing error and no one pays it: a blind-spot continuation beats inquiry while its realized score lies below the window (settlement_i_gap, curse_i, Witness.blind_spot).

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