Item 123: The sharp bankroll across a reopening, and the cushion exploit against the pinned market maker
Deference line — second wave · difficulty substantial · project normativity · open · node item-123
Across one reopening the proved bankroll is −3ρ(2 + ρ) (WarrantEntitlement.netWorth_ge_neg_odds_reopened, Fixture.liability_rebutted); the dispatch's 3ρ is refuted by an exact two-phase exhibit (projects/normativity/rounds/2026-10-21-rebuttal-and-end-to-end/src/exhibit.py::cushion_exhibit, 24 > 12 on the fixture) in which a counterparty's gains on the rebutted row cushion its later selling, and the per-row accounting gives odds_A(3 + 3·odds_S) = 27. Three gaps: the exhibit runs a one-coordinate maker, not the pinned MarketMaker (as item 114); the sharp constant between 24 and 72 is not determined; and whether a settlement-time accounting of the reopened mass (charging the counterparty's gain on a rebutted row at the rebuttal, as the rule charges the enforcer) restores 3ρ is a design question for the maintainer, queued.
Deliverable shape: the exploit against history L E with the trader exhibited, or the obstruction; the sharp constant for one reopening; the accounting variant if adopted. Acceptance check: Lean green; the exhibit's numbers recomputed by the fixture. Context: projects/normativity/rounds/2026-10-21-rebuttal-and-end-to-end/REBUTTAL.md A2; items 114, 40.
Deliverable shape: the exploit against history L E with the trader exhibited, or the obstruction; the sharp constant for one reopening; the accounting variant if adopted.
Acceptance check: Lean green; the exhibit's numbers recomputed by the fixture.
Context: projects/normativity/rounds/2026-10-21-rebuttal-and-end-to-end/REBUTTAL.md
Registered results bearing on this item
None registered.
Where it hangs
- held by seed-theory
Rounds and decisions that touch it
- decision The bankroll across a reopening: accept `3ρ(2 + ρ)`, or tighten the rule.
- decision the survivors are the grounded fixed point, defeaters are shared defeat ports, the warrant enforcer runs on the deductive market, the licence reads the compiled bundle, coherence is declared structure, the public defect is the displayed excess, and the names
- decision the map's follow-up rulings: hypotheses are filed when read, the registry join is an edge, the large derived files leave the tree, one decomposition per line, a formal result sits under the claim it establishes, and items are docketed by programme (F1–F6)