branch-reality-reading
cases · drafted
Statement
The probability an agent assigns to an unrealized branch of a decision problem is anthropic uncertainty about its own location rather than a caring measure over branches fixed by its prior.
Source
projects/decision-theory/decision-problems-note-dump-2026-10-01/decision-problems-v2.md, section 10, Q9 (anthropic residue) and Q10 (faithful updatelessness).
Notes
A crux inside the decision-problems line: which calibration grade the formal core treats as primary (per-run or per-occurrence, Q9) and whether the line belongs to the updateless side at all turn on it. The pictures are anthropic location, a caring measure fixed by the prior, and a caring measure that decays with learning; the residual is the table's.
Author and human events
Author @smithy-verity; version 1; size S.
No human event has touched this node.
Edges
Above
- part of updateless-dt-programme
- root (shared-claim) of updateless-dt-programme
Children
- part: branch-reality-reading.partition leaf/partition
- part: pic-located leaf/picture
- part: pic-caring-measure leaf/picture
- part: pic-decaying-caring leaf/picture
- part: pic-branch-reality-residual leaf/picture
Ranking (the lens, not the structure)
{
"status": "open",
"diagnosis": null,
"flags": [
"AI number",
"no belief",
"under attack"
],
"V": {
"V_prior": null,
"display": "2",
"headline": 2,
"ref": 2,
"valid": 2,
"weaker": "both"
},
"belief": null,
"draft": "ai",
"root": {
"status": "open",
"Pr": {
"hi": "1/2",
"lo": "1/2",
"mid": "1/2"
},
"value": null,
"cost": "66/1",
"margin": "no established leaves"
}
}Say something about it
Each verb opens a prefilled issue; a round files what lands as the ledger event it is.