conditional-stability-h3

leaf/hypothesis · drafted

Statement

The menu sequence is conditionally stable: summed over its options, the probability that the expert selects an option times the shift in the option's expected value from conditioning on its selection is asymptotically at least zero.

Source

projects/deference/note-dump-2026-08-11/wiki/total-trust-implies-value.md, (H3) Conditional-stability, "Selection is not, on average, bad news about the option selected"; the mass-weighted one-sided form.

projects/deference/faf-cleanroom-2026-10-02/packages/def-argmax-value/def-argmax-value-report.md, Target 4 (CondStableOn) and the refutation of the global form (condStable_refuted).

Notes

The scope condition of the scoped theorem, judged literally: does it hold of the menus the theorem is applied to. Its evidence parent is conditional-stability-breadth.

Author and human events

Author @smithy-verity-opus55; version 1; size S.

No human event has touched this node.

Edges

Above

Ranking (the lens, not the structure)

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 "status": "open",
 "diagnosis": null,
 "flags": [
  "AI number",
  "given conditional-stability-breadth"
 ],
 "V": {
  "V_prior": null,
  "display": "2",
  "headline": 2,
  "ref": 2,
  "valid": 2,
  "weaker": "both"
 },
 "belief": {
  "J": 0,
  "mid": "101/200",
  "range": [
   "1/200",
   "1/1"
  ],
  "width": "1/1"
 },
 "draft": "ai"
}

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