counterfactual-mugging-with-evidence
and · drafted
Statement
UDT 1.1 behaves updatefully with respect to evidence exactly when the predictor's counterfactual reasoning is updateful with respect to it, in Versions A and B of the biased-coin counterfactual mugging.
Source
projects/deference/faf-cleanroom-2026-10-02/packages/udt-paper-tiling/udt-paper-tiling-report.md, MuggingEvidence: updateful_pay_iff, versionB_optimal, moral. Source: projects/deference/faf-cleanroom-2026-10-02/sources/references/bli/understanding-trust/overleaf-final-source/main.tex, section Counterfactual Mugging With Evidence: "The point here is that UDT 1.1 behaves updatefully with respect to information \emph{exactly when Omega's counterfactual reasoning is updateful with respect to that information}."
Notes
The paper's finite-level moral, kernel-checked; its computational analogue is the step updateful-when-appropriate-li. A done result awaiting a human read alongside the rest of the paper's formalization.
Bridge card
Connected to no informal claim yet: held by no frame.
Declaration updateful_pay_iff (record counterfactual-mugging-with-evidence.record)
The declaration's biconditional between the agent paying and the predictor's counterfactual being updateful is the paper's italicized moral, over the two versions the paper defines.
Hypotheses, read:
- biased-coin-mugging-setting definitional: The problem is the biased-coin counterfactual mugging of the paper, Versions A and B, with the predictor's counterfactual as the paper defines it.
Completeness (counterfactual-mugging-with-evidence.complete): No hypothesis beyond the two versions of the example is needed for the moral.
Author and human events
Author @smithy-verity; version 1; size S.
No human event has touched this node.
Edges
Above
- part of updateless-dt-programme
- root (shared-claim) of updateless-dt-programme
Children
- part: counterfactual-mugging-with-evidence.record leaf/record
- part: counterfactual-mugging-with-evidence.bridge leaf/bridge
- part: biased-coin-mugging-setting leaf/hypothesis
- part: counterfactual-mugging-with-evidence.complete leaf/completeness
Ranking (the lens, not the structure)
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}Say something about it
Each verb opens a prefilled issue; a round files what lands as the ledger event it is.