erosion-under-silence
and · drafted
Statement
With 0 < alpha < beta <= 1 the agent's posterior odds of being wrong fall by the factor (1-beta)/(1-alpha) per silent period, so desideratum 1 eventually fails, and the hypothesis 0 < alpha is load-bearing.
Source
projects/deference/faf-cleanroom-2026-10-02/packages/corr-three-step-facts, the declarations Erosion.erode_iter_odds and erosion_fails_eventually and finding F-13 (Soares et al.'s Theorem 1(b) omits 0 < alpha).
Bridge card
Connected to no informal claim yet: held by no frame.
Declaration erosion_fails_eventually (record erosion-under-silence.record)
The declaration's conclusion is the erosion of compliance under silence that the base-rate working picture predicts, and its hypothesis records the premise the 2015 paper omitted.
Hypotheses, read:
- erosion-under-silence.setting definitional: The two-step shutdown model iterated over silent periods with press rates 0 < alpha < beta <= 1.
Completeness (erosion-under-silence.complete): No premise beyond the proved declaration, its stated setting and its bridge is needed for the informal reading of erosion under silence to hold.
Author and human events
Author @smithy-verity; version 1; size M.
No human event has touched this node.
Edges
Above
- part of dynamic-conditions-for-going-well
- root (shared-claim) of dynamic-conditions-for-going-well
Children
- part: erosion-under-silence.record leaf/record
- part: erosion-under-silence.setting leaf/hypothesis
- part: erosion-under-silence.bridge leaf/bridge
- part: erosion-under-silence.complete leaf/completeness
Ranking (the lens, not the structure)
{
"status": "open",
"diagnosis": null,
"flags": [],
"V": {
"V_prior": null,
"display": "2",
"headline": 2,
"ref": 2,
"valid": 2,
"weaker": "both"
},
"belief": null,
"draft": "ai",
"root": {
"status": "open",
"Pr": {
"hi": "1/1",
"lo": "71709/4000000",
"mid": "4580667/8000000"
},
"value": null,
"cost": "132/1",
"margin": "no established leaves"
}
}Say something about it
Each verb opens a prefilled issue; a round files what lands as the ledger event it is.