expert-knows-own-estimates
leaf/assumption · drafted
Statement
For every formula that case-splits on the expert's own published estimates, the expert's estimate of the formula equals the value obtained by resolving the case-split with those estimates.
Source
projects/deference/note-dump-2026-08-11/wiki/mart-implies-value.md, Remark: "the expert must correctly resolve that case-split — it must know its own estimates".
projects/deference/note-dump-2026-08-11/wiki/total-trust-implies-mart.md, What the theorem costs, honestly, H2: "If the expert's self-knowledge is only asymptotic (an LI stage knowing its own prices approximately), the weight is not provably 1".
Notes
Shared by both roots and by the kernel result's hypotheses; for an inductor expert it holds only asymptotically, which is what the asymptotic-introspection picture of the prose theorem exploits.
Author and human events
Author @smithy-verity; version 1; size S.
No human event has touched this node.
Edges
Above
- part of li-deference-collapse
- part of mart-implies-value-kernel
Ranking (the lens, not the structure)
{
"status": "open",
"diagnosis": null,
"flags": [
"AI number",
"attribution unvetted",
"superseded by expert-knows-own-estimates-asymptotically"
],
"V": {
"V_prior": null,
"display": "2",
"headline": 2,
"ref": 2,
"valid": 2,
"weaker": "both"
},
"belief": {
"J": 0,
"mid": "9/100",
"range": [
"0/1",
"59/100"
],
"width": "1/1"
},
"draft": "ai"
}Say something about it
Each verb opens a prefilled issue; a round files what lands as the ledger event it is.