legit-condition-vs-predict-reality
cases · drafted
Statement
The right target for an AI in a legitimate-oracle design is its expectation conditional on legitimacy rather than its prediction of reality with feedback correlated to reality only in legitimate worlds.
Source
projects/deference/note-dump-2026-08-11/notes/li-deference.md, section 0.3, the maintainer: "Perhaps predicting conditional on legitimacy is not quite right. Rather, the AI should be predicting reality, which correlates with feedback in legitimate worlds, and doesn't in illegitimate worlds. Conditioning on legitimacy would make the AI confidently predict legitimacy; we want accurate assessments of risks to legitimacy, too!"
Notes
A crux the maintainer named with both sides; the pictures are the two sides, the global and local forms of the first, the hedged-installation variant from the corrigibility note on value change, and a residual. The first row is conditioned on the clean room's locality result, which is the maintainer's objection as a theorem. It re-ranks the gated-Tower route against the finite-frame transfer as the definition of record, and the corrigibility branch's legitimacy-detection story. Weights are the maintainer's to place; the numbers here are the filing session's.
Author and human events
Author @smithy-verity; version 1; size M.
No human event has touched this node.
Edges
Above
- given of legit-locality-forced
- held by legitimacy
Children
- part: legit-condition-vs-predict-reality.partition leaf/partition
- part: pic-cvr-global-conditional leaf/picture
- part: pic-cvr-local-conditional leaf/picture
- part: pic-cvr-predict-reality leaf/picture
- part: pic-cvr-hedged-installation leaf/picture
- part: pic-cvr-residual leaf/picture
Ranking (the lens, not the structure)
{
"status": "open",
"diagnosis": null,
"flags": [
"AI number",
"given legit-locality-forced",
"held by legitimacy",
"no belief",
"under attack"
],
"V": {
"V_prior": null,
"display": "2",
"headline": 2,
"ref": 2,
"valid": 2,
"weaker": "both"
},
"belief": null,
"draft": "ai"
}Say something about it
Each verb opens a prefilled issue; a round files what lands as the ledger event it is.