p2-manages-the-news
and · drafted
Statement
Conditioning on the legitimacy event strictly prefers voiding a set of states if and only if the penalty is below the set's mass times the gap in expected value between the complement and the set; it is invariant to thinning the probability of legitimacy; and its optimum voids every state below the maximum.
Source
projects/deference/faf-cleanroom-2026-10-02/packages/legit-neg-pricing/legit-neg-pricing-report.md, P2_void_gt_keep_iff (the score is invariant to thinning the legitimacy probability by any positive amount, it strictly prefers voiding a set exactly when the penalty is below the set's mass times the value gap, and its optimum voids every state below the maximum).
Notes
Formal result in leaf form, Lean over Mathlib only. The concern that conditioning does not defend legitimacy, as three theorems; the evidence parent of the conditioning row.
Filed as a formal result (record, setting, bridge, completeness) in place of the one-sentence step the branch filed: what the kernel settled is the record, and what a human still checks is the bridge, whether the declaration says what this sentence says. The step's estimate (smithy-verity-218) stays in the ledger as history. The declaration is not in a claims registry, so the record reads not in a claims registry until it is registered.
Bridge card
Connected to no informal claim yet: held by legitimacy.
Declaration P2_void_gt_keep_iff (record p2-manages-the-news.record)
The declaration says that conditioning on legitimacy strictly prefers voiding a set of states exactly when the penalty is below the set's mass times the value gap, so the proposal manages the news it conditions on.
Hypotheses, read:
- p2-manages-the-news.setting definitional: The voiding family over a finite problem, with the exclusion convention for conditioning on legitimacy at zero legitimacy probability, as the package fixes it.
Completeness (p2-manages-the-news.complete): No premise beyond the proved declaration, its stated setting and its bridge is needed for the informal reading of p2 manages the news to hold.
Author and human events
Author @smithy-verity; version 1; size M.
No human event has touched this node.
Edges
Above
- held by legitimacy
Children
- part: p2-manages-the-news.record leaf/record
- part: p2-manages-the-news.setting leaf/hypothesis
- part: p2-manages-the-news.bridge leaf/bridge
- part: p2-manages-the-news.complete leaf/completeness
Ranking (the lens, not the structure)
{
"status": "open",
"diagnosis": null,
"flags": [
"AI number",
"held by legitimacy",
"stale"
],
"V": {
"V_prior": null,
"display": "2",
"headline": 2,
"ref": 2,
"valid": 2,
"weaker": "both"
},
"belief": {
"J": 0,
"mid": "19/20",
"range": [
"9/20",
"1/1"
],
"width": "1/1"
},
"draft": "ai"
}Say something about it
Each verb opens a prefilled issue; a round files what lands as the ledger event it is.