pic-U-exact-introspection
leaf/picture · drafted
Statement
The expert's expectations are exact and provably linear on observables, so that Γ proves E*(D) = E*(Z) − E*(⌜E*(Z)⌝) = 0 for every gap bet D; this is the surrogate reading of the setting, and the written proof's Step 1 holds in it.
Source
projects/deference/note-dump-2026-08-11/wiki/total-trust-implies-mart.md, Proof, Step 1: "The expert knows its own estimate and is coherent-linear on observables"; the pending-rewrite note: "The argument below is stated at the surrogate level: its Step 1 asserts Γ ⊢ E*(D) = E*(Z) − E*(⌜E*(Z)⌝) = 0, which is exactly the retracted 'expert expectations are exact and provably linear' assumption".
Notes
The picture in which the proof as written is valid. Its weight is the probability that the surrogate reading is the one the roots need; the roots use an inductor expert, so that weight is small.
Author and human events
Author @smithy-verity; version 1; size S.
No human event has touched this node.
Edges
Above
- part of tt-implies-mart-gap-bets
Ranking (the lens, not the structure)
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}Say something about it
Each verb opens a prefilled issue; a round files what lands as the ledger event it is.