selection-collapse--corrigibility-risk

and · drafted

Statement

Any legitimate evaluator whose number is a conditional expectation given information that fixes the legitimacy event gives exactly the outcome-scored values in aggregate, and pointwise-correct evaluators miss by minus the covariance of the harm with legitimacy divided by the product of the legitimacy probabilities.

Source

projects/deference/faf-cleanroom-2026-10-02/packages/legit-neg-pricing, declaration P1_S2sel_eq_P1_S1 (the degree of collapse is the impure cells' covariance mass) and projects/deference/faf-cleanroom-2026-10-02/packages/legit-neg-static, declaration condExp_gap_eq_neg_cov_div. The results are AI-generated and unvetted.

Notes

A second session filed the same result as the one-sentence step selection-collapse, now superseded by this node. This id keeps the suffix the merge gave it because its gestalt event is history and an id is not renamed under an event.

Bridge card

Connected to no informal claim yet: held by no frame.

Declaration condExp_gap_eq_neg_cov_div (record selection-collapse.record)

Bridge (formalizer-stated; selection-collapse.bridge, drafted):

The covariance formula is the packages' selection-collapse result: an evaluator who knows the branch reproduces outcome scoring and one who does not misses by the stated amount.

Hypotheses, read:

selection-collapse.setting definitional: A finite state space with a legitimacy event, a harm random variable and evaluators defined as conditional expectations given stated information, as the packages fix them.

Completeness (selection-collapse.complete): No premise beyond the proved declaration, its stated setting and its bridge is needed for the informal reading of selection collapse to hold.

Author and human events

Author @smithy-verity; version 1; size M.

No human event has touched this node.

Edges

Above

part of legitimacy-weighted-deference
root (shared-claim) of legitimacy-weighted-deference

Children

part: selection-collapse.record leaf/record
part: selection-collapse.setting leaf/hypothesis
part: selection-collapse.bridge leaf/bridge
part: selection-collapse.complete leaf/completeness

Ranking (the lens, not the structure)

{
 "status": "open",
 "diagnosis": null,
 "flags": [
  "AI number"
 ],
 "V": {
  "V_prior": null,
  "display": "2",
  "headline": 2,
  "ref": 2,
  "valid": 2,
  "weaker": "both"
 },
 "belief": null,
 "draft": "ai",
 "root": {
  "status": "open",
  "Pr": {
   "hi": "1/1",
   "lo": "71709/4000000",
   "mid": "4580667/8000000"
  },
  "value": null,
  "cost": "132/1",
  "margin": "no established leaves"
 }
}

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