self-fulfilling-prophecy-as-corruption
cases · drafted
Statement
Every harmful self-fulfilling prophecy is corruption in the map-territory sense, so that a legitimate predictor is by definition one that does not produce them.
Source
projects/deference/note-dump-2026-08-11/related-chats/2026-07-05__theory-of-legitimacy__c1ab54d9.md, turn 17: "why should we expect all cases of harmful self-fulfilling prophecies to have such a structure?" and "Isn't it rational to treat bad self-fulfilling prophecies as corrupt?"
Notes
A crux whose two sides the cited chat states; it re-ranks the purely-epistemic-AI question (raised under the second picture) against the fixed-point-selection route the li-deference notes say requires solving the rest of the alignment problem. The 2019 Predict-O-Matic posts on LessWrong treat the phenomenon and were not read for this filing; quoting them is the task task-predict-o-matic-quotes.
Author and human events
Author @smithy-verity; version 1; size M.
No human event has touched this node.
Edges
Above
- part of legit-dynamics-learning
- root (shared-claim) of legit-dynamics-learning
Children
- part: self-fulfilling-prophecy-as-corruption.partition leaf/partition
- part: pic-sfp-all-corruption leaf/picture
- part: pic-sfp-nonagentic-predictor leaf/picture
- part: pic-sfp-by-policy leaf/picture
- part: pic-sfp-residual leaf/picture
Ranking (the lens, not the structure)
{
"status": "open",
"diagnosis": null,
"flags": [
"AI number",
"no belief",
"under attack"
],
"V": {
"V_prior": null,
"display": "2",
"headline": 2,
"ref": 2,
"valid": 2,
"weaker": "both"
},
"belief": null,
"draft": "ai",
"root": {
"status": "open",
"Pr": {
"hi": "1/2",
"lo": "1/2",
"mid": "1/2"
},
"value": null,
"cost": "118/1",
"margin": "no established leaves"
}
}Say something about it
Each verb opens a prefilled issue; a round files what lands as the ledger event it is.