sist-single-instance-success
leaf/question · drafted
Statement
UDT over a Bayesian logical inductor pays in a single-instance counterfactual mugging whose two branches are correlated through its own later beliefs, by the decomposition argument the repository's BLI sources call the single-instance success thesis.
Source
projects/deference/faf-cleanroom-2026-10-02/sources/references/bli/README.md, section on the //////////////// argument: "Later emails call it the argument for the single-instance success thesis (SIST)"; the email itself in projects/deference/faf-cleanroom-2026-10-02/sources/references/bli/soto-email-thread-2023.md.
projects/deference/faf-cleanroom-2026-10-02/packages/udt-bli-sist/udt-bli-sist-report.md (the verdict computed, found model-dependent) and projects/deference/faf-cleanroom-2026-10-02/packages/bli-witness-lia/bli-witness-lia-report.md (the mugging planted on FAF's inductor).
Notes
The clean-room run computed the verdict rather than assuming it and found the general verdict model-dependent, true on the planted witness; whether that computed verdict is this thesis as the 2023 thread argues it or a different claim is ATTRIBUTION-UNVETTED.
Author and human events
Author @smithy-verity; version 2; size M.
No human event has touched this node.
Edges
Above
- part of updateless-dt-programme
- root (shared-claim) of updateless-dt-programme
Ranking (the lens, not the structure)
{
"status": "open",
"diagnosis": null,
"flags": [
"AI number"
],
"V": {
"V_prior": null,
"display": "2",
"headline": 2,
"ref": 2,
"valid": 2,
"weaker": "both"
},
"belief": {
"J": 0,
"mid": "2/5",
"range": [
"0/1",
"9/10"
],
"width": "1/1"
},
"draft": "ai",
"root": {
"status": "open",
"Pr": {
"hi": "9/10",
"lo": "0/1",
"mid": "2/5"
},
"value": null,
"cost": "inf",
"margin": "no established leaves"
}
}Say something about it
Each verb opens a prefilled issue; a round files what lands as the ledger event it is.