udt101-influence-calculus

and · drafted

Statement

The UDT 1.01 influence calculus of Posts 6 to 8 is formalized: Lemmas 1 and 2, Theorem 1 under the literal A5 profile with a construal-dependent counterexample, Theorem 2 as tiling, conservation of expected gain and the value of deferral.

Source

projects/deference/faf-cleanroom-2026-10-02/packages/udt-influence-101/udt-influence-101-report.md: theorem1, Priv.theorem1_fails, A5_ofDist_general, theorem1_sum. Source: Diffractor's UDT1.01 sequence (LessWrong, https://www.lesswrong.com/s/CCtgwXPXWxSiFWFnf), Posts 6 to 8, cited by the maintainer in projects/deference/faf-cleanroom-2026-10-02/sources/unbounded-embedded/01-primary/summer-research-plan-2026--research-ideas-may-2026.md, section Updatelessness.

Notes

A collaborator's published sequence formalized; the area's single most consequential research claim, that Post 8's Theorem 1 is false as stated, is construal-dependent and the package's register overstates it, which the open hypothesis leaf's action fixes.

Bridge card

Connected to no informal claim yet: held by no frame.

Declaration theorem1 (record udt101-influence-calculus.record)

Bridge (reconstructed; udt101-influence-calculus.bridge, drafted):

The declaration's influence measures and A5 profile are Post 8's as the formalizer read them, so theorem1 is Post 8's Theorem 1 under the formalizer's construal of A5, and Priv.theorem1_fails is a counterexample under the literal profile.

Hypotheses, read:

a5-profile-coherent-setting open: The influence profile satisfies A5 in the literal form together with profile coherence, under which Post 8's Theorem 1 holds in its honest general form.

Completeness (udt101-influence-calculus.complete): No hypothesis beyond the A5 profile and its coherence is needed for the formalized calculus.

Author and human events

Author @smithy-verity; version 1; size M.

No human event has touched this node.

Edges

Above

part of updateless-dt-programme
root (shared-claim) of updateless-dt-programme

Children

part: udt101-influence-calculus.record leaf/record
part: udt101-influence-calculus.bridge leaf/bridge
part: a5-profile-coherent-setting leaf/hypothesis
part: udt101-influence-calculus.complete leaf/completeness

Ranking (the lens, not the structure)

{
 "status": "open",
 "diagnosis": null,
 "flags": [
  "AI number"
 ],
 "V": {
  "V_prior": null,
  "display": "2",
  "headline": 2,
  "ref": 2,
  "valid": 2,
  "weaker": "both"
 },
 "belief": null,
 "draft": "ai",
 "root": {
  "status": "open",
  "Pr": {
   "hi": "1/1",
   "lo": "99/40000",
   "mid": "12831/40000"
  },
  "value": null,
  "cost": "132/1",
  "margin": "no established leaves"
 }
}

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